The elephant or so to say "bear" in the room today, (recent market free fall) might be construed as a possible parallel to the 2008 but here are few reasons, it might not turn out to be the same?
- Government Action: The government of all nations is much more receptive and active to the idea of bailing out and systematic risk consequences (Lehman crisis). This can be evident from the New Reform Bill passed by US and EU and the recent bailout of Greece by EU and desperate action by Greece on the ban of naked selling. While we still agree that there are Dangerously over leverage AAA super powers (DOLTAS), but the chances of them bursting are quiet minimal if not low.
- Economic environment: In, autumn of 2008, the common conception was regarding "worst global recession since the 1930s." Today, many people are counting on stimulus package (75% unspent) and foresee this to be major economic boost. Some relief can be seen from the recovering commodities (Oil!!!!) owing to consumption.
- Earnings Forecast: In contrast to the "worst earnings recession since the 1930s" that was taking place in late 2008, Most people are of view that Earnings will be robust in the current year and 2008 scenario is unlikely to repeat.
PE Ratio Thesis : While President Obama said " What you’re now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal, if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it". Many people are of view that its time again to be a stock pickers market with PE of S&P being close to 12.In August 1982, the PE Ratio dropped below 7 (see chart), in both July 1932 and July 1921 it went below 6. This would imply that there is further downside of 50% of S&P, if we were to see the same level of PE which isn't the case right now seeing the earnings.
Comments welcome!
