Oil Price - the long term bet !!

Oil for me is black gold and sooner or later is going to run out of supply, which would then lead us either to cut consumption (or stop consumption) or look for alternative means of energy for running out cars (Solar/hydro energy? May be?). Here are few reasons why I think so.

Peak oil theory

People have argued it long and are still arguing whether the oil production has peaked in 2005-2006 and we are on the verge of consuming what is left only for few years. There are evidences of large water reservoirs getting disappeared in OPEC region especially Saudi Arabia, leading us to believe that OPEC is pumping water in the field to take out oil. This would in turn mean that OPEC is struggling hard to maintain the production growth.

Oil Budget Deficit or OPEC Quota

10 of the 12 countries in OPEC 12 are producing within there quota’s which were decided years ago (see latest Oil report of May 2010), now these are the countries where Oil is the only official business income for the government to balance the budget and most of these countries are ~70-80% dependent on it. This would make a case of arguing that it’s not really the quota’s which is limiting there production, its there I inherent capacity to produce which cannot be enhanced. Think of this as other way, why didn’t a country like Iran or Nigeria produce more when oil was near $140, which would have solved there problems of deficit for years to come.

Most of the oil rich countries now need a price of around $40-$50 at least to balance there budgets and many of them have a marginal cost of producing an additional barrel at $60-$70.

Is it Speculation or demand driven price rise

Well, some people have long argued that oil price is about 60% speculation, while other says it’s purely a demand supply driven case though there might be little bit impact due to financial transactions. However, CFTC has already argued long back about the case (see this report ) still we seem to have the same notion. I do agree that commodities are an alternative class of assets and prove to be a measure for diversification in this crisis; however that’s true for the entire commodity complex and not just for oil. The only way to take a long exposure of oil or to protect yourself through the adverse price movement (in case you are a consumer) is through futures. Also looking how India and china are growing and there demand numbers peaking, why do we have to blame the entire price rise to financial markets?

Oil Spill

Does it mean something for me? Am I concerned about the environment now? Well honestly, this Deepwater disaster in USA (GOM) caused headlines around the world estimating the loss to the environment, damage to life, etc but yet there are so many other countries where this happens on a regular basis yet no one notices the same. This is largely because all the new discoveries of oil are in unconventional places in countries which are politically unstable, and where oil is the backbone of the economy and big oil giants just bend the rules.

Nonetheless, this disaster might lead to renewed curbs on offshore oil drilling for the near term, which was removed not so long ago by the house due to increasing demand of oil. We can see the visible impact of this spill on the longer term prices of oil.

Approach gold the traditional way!

Gold finds place in an Indian’s asset basket with or without a conscious asset allocation strategy that might be in place. This tradition of having some of it stashed away for the rainy day or for a family function (mainly children’s marriage) need not be elaborated at all. However, in today’s context gold find place in an individual’s asset basket as a result of more formal means of inclusion. This has happened over the past 15 years with India getting more closely knit globally, proliferation of advisors and knowledge transfer on currencies and resultant need to hold real assets.




As a result, gold is now held more in an sophisticated form (ETF’s) or more complex to understand ‘Gold funds’ (a quasi form of holding gold through long position on gold mining stocks). The need to hold an alternative or real asset is now fulfilled by allocating 5%-8% of an individual’s portfolio by exposure through these means. In addition, positives like liquidity, ease of transacting and low/no storage costs make the case stronger taking exposure via this route.

The question then arises is should exposure to gold move completely to holding it in these forms. The answer to this question lies in looking at both pros & cons of holding it in the traditional (physical) form and making a choice according to personal needs and goals.

• Amongst the biggest advantage of holding gold in physical form is its absence of daily valuation which is evident in holding it as an ETF. This sets the stage for increasing the holding period as a result of absence of mark-to-market.

• Secondly, the notion of liquidity might be misunderstood when holding it in physical form; since in the ETF mode it would still take t+2 days to realise cash, while in the physical for its just over the counter (at least in the Indian context). This normally acts as a liquidity booster during emergencies and a last line of defence for any household.

• Third, unlike other asset class which require constant monitoring and periodic re-allocation depending upon investor’s asset allocation, gold can continue to be held for pre-specified goals such as daughter marriage (since it would be cost neutral when jewellery purchases are to be made under anytime horizon).

Amongst the disadvantages could remain its cost of holding and security, both of which are a big hurdle for today’s investor.
The need to propagate and communicate benefits of gold investment to his/her client’s asset basket lies ultimately with the advisor. More often than not gold investment is either too little or too much and depends upon investor’s psyche and outlook towards holding it. Advisor’s role in maintaining the appropriate level (ideally between 5%-8% of the asset basket) will have its advantages in the long run.

UPDATE: Gold fever - It still ain't what it used to be....

Gold: Is it a Consolidation phase ($900-$950 level) or things are really going wrong?

What is going on behind the scene?

Gold still remains the best bet in precious metals. Gold has given an annualized return of 46.28% YTD and around 40% annualized since we wrote our first thesis and recommendation on gold (see article date January 21, 2008). Gold roared to a lifetime high of $1,030.80/ troy oz. on March 17, 2008 but then tumbled to a two-month low of $872.90 in early April in a broad commodities sell-off. It has bounced since then and stood around $935 an ounce on April 15, 2008. There has been increasing media reports and speculation about future of gold. In our opinion, the concerns like, “is the bull run over”, “has gold seen its golden season”, are baseless and we have reasons for our strong view. Many on the street are also arguing that the shining in gold was due to the increased money flow in the commodities complex (Commodity ETF’s/funds), however we think this remains one of the factor but certainly not the underlying one, gold has its own reasons supporting the price movements.

The answer to the first question in the headline is affirmative and second question is negative.

Recent concerns/factors working for gold:

1. Strong fundamentals: Increasing supply concerns from South Africa:

Gold still enjoys the case of strong fundamentals where demand is still more than supply (see our previous analysis "Gold: its ain't the fever what it used to be Jan 2008")

South Africa (SA) is one of the top producers of gold. In terms of 2007 mine production it accounted for around 11.1%, Just behind China which enjoyed 11.3% (see production chart). Lately SA is having growing imbalance between the power consumption and generation. As a measure of regulation and in order to control things, SA govt. is controlling all the power allocation to all the business’s which primarily includes gold mining. As per last update, SA govt. is now allocating around 90% of the power which the mines used to consume earlier. This is regardless of which mine is producing how much in terms of efficiency and cost, hence even if the producer may want to allocate 100% or more of the power to some low cost and more efficient mines and keep certain high cost mines closed , it has no option but to suffer on rising costs for non-efficient mines.

As per experts and power industry consultants the power problem is a structural problem on account of lack of build up of new generation facilities coupled with increased usage and bad weather, hence the situation might take around 2-3 years to get fully normalized. Major gold producers like Gold Fields, Anglo American (400,000 ounces shortfall) have already announced reduced production guidance on account of power shortages.

Source: http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production.htm
Source/further readings supporting the thesis: 2007 world gold production fell marginally and 2008 output to stabilize – GFMShttp://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=50465&sn=Detail

2. Renewed demand from Asia particularly India: Seasonality

Though there is no denial of the fact that demand was subdued in India and China due to high gold prices, the fact remain that gold is the party essence for every celebration in India. This time the pullback is attributed to or rather spurred because of the wedding season (ending May 2008) and The Akshaya Tritiya festival (May 7, 2008). Jewellery demand may see a major spur due to these two reasons. We have studied the data from 1970 for gold demand and came to the conclusion that gold does have seasonality factor. The first and fourth quarters are the periods when there was rise in gold price on account of higher demand, while the second and the third quarters were seen as quiet or flat demand during the particular year. Having said that, the analysis is based on normalized data and we have removed specific outliers to improve data quality.

Source/further readings supporting the thesis:
Indian demand keeping gold markets alive
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=50690&sn=Detail
Return to gold by Eastern jewellery markets means price may have bottomed
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=49719&sn=Detail
Citigroup warns of waning gold investment, seasonal slack - but positive long term
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=50688&sn=Detail

3. IMF sales – a perspective. The gold for sale is different from the rest!

The recent announcement from the US Treasury on 25th February, approving in principle the proposal for the IMF to sell some of its gold reserves, marked a reversal of policy and generated a knee-jerk reaction in the gold market, with prices dropping by $10 to close at $938 that day.
It looks as though any sales by the IMF will be restricted to 400 tonnes used in a previous sale and repurchase agreement – and in any case would be made within the existing CBGA sales Agreement. The market is right to remain unfazed!

This looks very much like the gold that was used in sale-and-repurchase transactions with the IMF in 1999 and 2000. In these transactions the IMF sold gold to Brazil and Mexico at prevailing market prices and then immediately accepted it back at the same price in settlement of financial obligations of those countries to the IMF. While the net effect on gold holdings was zero, the gold thus accepted was entered onto the IMF's books at the prevailing market price rather than the official price of SDR35/ounce. In accordance with the IMF Articles the equivalent of SDR35/ounce from the proceeds of the sales was retained in the General Resources Account. The increase in the value of the gold held on the balance sheet was deemed to offset the liabilities of Mexico and Brazil to the IMF.

There are three things which needed to be noted in this regard as observed by Crockett Committee:

Firstly the undertaking-sale of gold-should be qualified in important ways that limit its impact on the gold market. In the first instance, the amount should be limited to the 400 tons I mentioned, without envisaging any additional sales.

"Secondly, the sale should take place within the existing Central Bank Gold Agreement, that is to say it would not be additional to sales already programmed by central banks, but would be accommodated by reductions in the amounts of gold that the central banks might sell under the Central Bank Gold Agreement.

"And thirdly, we have emphasized that the sale should be undertaken in a very careful way in terms of their periodicity amounts and manner of sale such as not to disturb the market.

Source/further readings supporting the thesis:
IMF sales – a perspective. The gold for sale is different from the rest!
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=48222&sn=Detail
Swiss Central Bank gold sales – further analysis
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=49939&sn=Detail

Gold fever. It ain’t what it used to be!

Producers Removing Hedges

In 2007, most gold producers (E.g. Newmont, Barrick etc) removed their gold hedges in anticipation of a rise in gold prices, which came true in the last quarter of 2007, witnessing a substantial increase in gold prices, although top-line gains of these companies were affected and offset by higher operating costs, still the highest operating cost was around $400-500 per ounce which still leaves a decent margin on a price of $800 gold.

Production more difficult, limited supply and consolidation underway

Since the depletion of gold mines is more rapid then the other conventional mining assets like base metals, Gold producers are constantly pushed to acquire new assets. Although prices remained elevated, key producers remain under huge pressure to increase reserves and lower production costs. It should be noted that in most cases there has been no new discovery of precious or base metals, the reserves were lying there for years, just uneconomical to produce because of the low prices.(refer table/charts below.)

Gold fever. It isn’t what it used to be!

We look back on the last time gold hit $850 (1980) with even gold teeth going into the melting pot. Not this time though, as many feel the metal has much further to go yet on its upward path. The hype and hoopla that accompanied gold's record-breaking rise the last time around is probably missing this time partly because although there is plenty of risk around, including high oil prices, there is little 1970s-style doom saying.

Though the price of gold seems very high today, the record $850 an ounce it hit at the London fixing on January 21, 1980, translates in today's money to more than $2,150 and therefore we can say that we are comfortable at these levels (inflation adjusted).
(Refer to http://www.mineweb.com/ for more details)

If that’s the case, why is gold falling now?

The only reason gold peaked recently ($918/ounce), coming back to $880 levels, is a result of current scenario in which the market for gold-specific factors that have been acting unfavorably. There have been two price drivers have become less supportive.

First, central bank selling has picked up for some parts of the world, and second, speculation is underway.

Having said that; a strong recovery in physical demand (particularly from India & China) and positive external drivers outweigh the two gold specific factors for now. Hence in our view the gold prices are likely to maintain their upward momentum in the months ahead.

More room for upside

We anticipate that gold prices will continue to increase on account of a weak U.S. dollar and concerns about inflation. Gold is up approximately 30% for the year, with a year-to-date average price of $760 per ounce. Notably the 5-yr return on gold was a total of 140%. We expect a weak global economic growth, increase in inflation fears, a flight to quality for safe haven and other market concerns with the broader economy which will in turn support for higher gold prices. Historically it has been seen, that a US FED easing cycle results in money flowing into commodities especially oil (a.k.a.black gold) and precious metals.

Some of the charts to support the thesis:

World Consumption Pattern

Gold – a tool against Inflation

Gold – a bet against dollar

Charts Source: http://www.reliancemutual.com/

Some of the recently listed articles for gold outlook http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=44725&sn=Detail http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=44725&sn=Detail http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/investment/index.html